Monitoring insider trading in prediction markets is going to be a very tough task given the breadth of possible contracts and the diversity of individuals who could have access to inside information.

The question is generally not whether a rule changes any benefits buy-side or sell-side; both sides include numerous sophisticated entities. The question is whether any particular rule change is good for the markets; that is why so often buy-side and sell-side were agreed in opposition to many of the proposals put forward by the SEC under the prior administration.

The view under the prior administration that disclosure is virtually always a benefit fails to take into consideration that disclosure is both costly to provide and often results in injury to the entity making the disclosure that is not compensated by any market benefit.

Given the obligation that financial institutions have to know the identities of their clients, it really should be a straightforward matter for the CFTC to investigate who placed any unusual or outsized trades.