The Complaint describes derivatives subject to the CEA as "financial instruments such . . . options, [that]  . .. market participants use . . . to hedge risks or speculate on commodity price movements."  That description fits some prediction contracts, but not all of them.  Does it matter?

The fundamental problem with the Senators' criticism of the SEC's actions is that it is not based on the definition of the term "security" in the securities laws. This is the same fundamental problem that the former administration refused to address: i.e. the mere fact that an activity or a product has the potential to make or lose money does not make the activity or the product a "security" as such term is used in the securities laws.

Unless the Senators can make a persuasive…

The purpose of cost-benefit analysis is to force the government to justify its regulations, to demonstrate that they provide benefit sufficient to justify their costs. In practice, it may not be easy to quantify the benefits of regulation; and while it should be somewhat easier to quantify costs, previous regulators often seemed somewhat lax as to their estimates, consistently low-balling costs.  

Under the Biden Administration, at least in the area of financial regulation,…

The diversity of events that may become contracts on prediction markets will make it very challenging to monitor insider trading. One important key, as likely was the case here, will be for each prediction market to identify big winners on unusual bets.  

It may also be necessary to rethink what it means to have inside information. In the instant case, the solder clearly owed an obligation to the US government not to use the information in the soldier's possession. But there will…